Airfreight recovery could extend deep into 2024

Prospects fade for busy shipping season with demand yet to hit bottom

Air logistics companies are grudgingly writing off the traditional peak season as weak macroeconomic conditions drag out the freight downturn longer than expected. Low rates will carry over into next year, even if demand eventually picks up because many businesses are negotiating contracts to lock in low prices instead of shopping for one-time quotes when ready to ship, analysts say.

Airfreight remains mired at the bottom of a 16-month downturn and, by some measures, is worsening on the cusp of the busy season when retailers rush in orders for big shopping events and the holidays.

With demand remaining lackluster and passenger airlines swiftly resuming international wide-body flights, airfreight rates continue to be burdened. The capacity has increased by approximately 7% to 9% compared to last year and by 3.7% compared to 2019. The average global price for air freight has plummeted by over 40% compared to a year ago, but the rate of decline stabilised four months ago.

Although the global economy has avoided recession and consumer confidence is relatively strong, leading indicators for airfreight are clouding in the coming months.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/wait-for-airfreight-recovery-could-extend-deep-into-2024